Auros (auros) wrote,

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What people should know about this year's SS report.

Brad DeLong has explained the tricks used to make SS look weaker this year, even though the economy outperformed the gloomy assumptions of last year's projections. (ETA: More, including comments from Paul Krugman on how the Trustees selectively used recent bad news, like rising oil prices, and ignored recent good news, like productivity.)

Note that even with six assumptions in the Intermediate Cost model either being made even more pessimistic than they were before, or kept the same in spite of conflicts with observable reality, the long term forecast actually improved: the trust fund exhaustion date moved forward a year, but the total deficit over 75 years, as a percentage of GDP, fell. (This implies that the percentage of benefits that would be payable, after the trust fund disappeared, must be higher; and it was already around 75-80%.)

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