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Tuesday, March 29th, 2005

Date:2005-03-29 11:46
Subject:We are at war with Eurasia. We have always been at war with Eurasia.
Security:Public
Mood: annoyed

John Snow, as Secretary of the Treasury, is a signatory to the annual Trustees' Report. The Trustees' Report predicts future productivity growth will slow drastically, due to a falling birth rate, reduced immigration, and the presumed absence of a repeat performance of the info-tech revolution of the past decade or so. (Biotech, maybe? Or just further leaps in info-tech, such as quantum computing.) From the Report:

The ultimate annual increases in productivity are assumed to be 1.9, 1.6, and 1.3 percent for the low cost, intermediate, and high cost assumptions, respectively.


Note that if you look at productivity growth in the last decade, 2.5% would be a bad year. Last year's number is around 4, and the year before was around 3.5, IIRC.

Apparently, Mr. Snow is suffering strategic amnesia as to the contents of the Report he signed last week:

Treasury's Snow says high stock-market returns will be possible because gains in productivity -- or output per worker -- will continue to be strong, offsetting slowing population growth.


As my favorite economist (who highlighted this tidbit) always says: I'll stop calling them Orwellian when they stop using 1984 as a playbook.

I understand that there are Libertarian types who favor a lower-tax, less-regulated regime than I would. But for god's sake, people, the Republicans aren't your guys; they're liars and thieves and faux-religious charlatans, and if they drive the country into the ground, you'll be just as screwed as the rest of us.

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